Horse Sense

Tips 31 January 2009

2009-01-31T01:16:00.000-08:00

2.50 Wetherby: Wild cane ridge

3.30 Doncaster: Victory Gunner

Horses worth following

2009-01-27T08:46:00.000-08:00

Andreas A 8-year-old gelding, trained by P Nichol’s has a very good strike rate from March to May. Five wins from thirteen definitely worth following in these months.

Blaeberry a seven-year-old mare, with Emma Laville Blaeberry tends to peak in spring, and from March onwards, the record is five wins from thirteen through to October.

Elvis returns a 10-year-old with M Jefferso runs his best races from March to May, with three from eight in this period, as does finger on the pulse trained by Tom Taafe with four wins from nine

Time of the year

2008-12-21T07:41:00.000-08:00

I would suggest now is a good time to take avoiding action. It comes to backing any of Nigel Twiston Davies runners as had been written before. He always has an exceptional style to the season with a winner after winner. But this last month has been very proud and and it may pay to avoid his sources. Until we see a resurgence in his fortunes but a trainer who has been very quiet until now, is David pipe, that he has had a few winners lately, and may be worth watching closely. Now he’s coming on.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe Can do no wrong at the moment and has about 840% when in average at the moment, and really speak in all his runners are worth following on the all-weather now and for the foreseeable future

Tips for 20/12/08

2008-12-20T03:40:00.000-08:00

1:05 Ascot Alderburn

2:35 Haydock Nevertika

From the vaults

2008-12-18T14:05:00.000-08:00

This is a system that was quite popular A few years ago I have followed it now and the gain over the years with some degree of success.

It applies only to chases in the National Hunt season.

The only races to select are those with five runners or less.

The bet is a straight forecast on the second favorite to beat the third in the betting. You may think it is madness, leaving the favorite out of the picture, but the logic of the bet supposes the favorite is a better class animal, and in a small field. he or she may have the make the pace when this does happened the favorite is more likely to make mistakes,

and this is what your bet relies on if there are two horses reasonably matched in a race with a small field the odds on the other one or two horses can be quite long in this case it can pay to back your strongest fancy with the outsider and have a saver on the other horse, with the outsider again lets say five points on the main bet one on the saver

tips for 6/12/2008

2008-12-06T05:10:00.000-08:00

2:50 wetherby --- edmo yewkay

3:35 sandown ---see you dare

Tips for 29 Nov 2008

2008-11-29T00:42:00.000-08:00

Newbury

1:35 Souwester

2:40 Island flyer (NAP)

Finding winners

2008-11-26T11:03:00.000-08:00

Finding winners is difficult enough for anyone when all is said and done, but there are certain rules You can follow to give yourself a great chance of success.

Discipline

Always when having a bet, you should adhere to certain rules set yourself a limit on how much you intend to lay out and stick to it.

Never lay on more than you can afford to lose equally, if you’re having a good day and you are showing a good profit on your selections. Do not carry on gambling after all your selections have one. Take your profits do not bet for the sake of it. This is the quickest way to turn a good day into a bad one.

Systems

There are many systems that can be followed, and some will show a fair profit over the season, but you must follow the system day in and day out

Be prepared for losing run’s and set yourself a sensible bank to work with I would suggest a sensible approach would be 5% of your bank I.e.. £100 bank £5 bet this will cover you for any reasonable losing runs and if you have picked a decent system and stick to the rules. You should show a reasonable profit

The most difficult thing is really is to stay focused and going through the sticky periods

Tips for 22 november 2008

2008-11-22T04:40:00.000-08:00

ASCOT

1.20 Jack the giant (Nap)

1.55 Elsive dream

HAYDOCK

2.25 Omaley

3.15 Acambo

Huntington

2.25 Kenzo 111 (Nap)

Trainers to follow

2008-11-17T04:30:00.000-08:00

Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls is our top jumps trainer and his horses are well documented so let us look at some of his less exposed horses with the expectation of finding some profitable bets.

First one up is American trilogy a ex-French flat performer whose sire has produced jump winners a young horse with a lot of potential who it could pay to follow in novice hurdles, possibly with some give in the ground.

Bump in the night is another youngster who has run well in three bumpers so far and could well turn into a decent novice hurdler over a decent ground.

Express leader looks a decent novice in the making having run two good races so far he could well turn out to be a decent staying novice hurdler.

Massasoit run a decent race in a novice hurdle at wincanton last season and could turn into a decent chaser this season.

Nevada royale has had some set backs but as the season progresses could turn into a nice chaser.

Orackers is not expected to be seen out for some time but when he gets conditions to suit i.e. good or good/firm could be very good. Worth waiting for spring could be his time.

Tips for 15 november 2008

2008-11-15T04:04:00.000-08:00

1.25 Cheltenham: Ballyfitz

2.00 Opera Mundi (nap)

3.10 Jug of punch (each way)

Sunday tip

1.55 Cheltenham: acambo

Horses to follow

2008-11-08T04:39:00.000-08:00

With the national hunt season now well under way lets look at some horses that may be quite profitable to back over the coming months

Bagan

Bagan is a 9 year old gelding trained by M. TODHUNTER and when racing over a distance of 2miles 3 furlongs to 2miles 5 furlongs on good ground or good to soft should pay his way.

Beshabar

Beshabar is trained by P. Nicholls and when running over a distance of about 2 miles 4 furlongs on good or good to soft going will also prove profitable.

Bronsun F’Sure

Bronsun F’Sure trained by C. Pugson has a excellent record when racing over 3 miles plus but he really needs good/firm or firm going to be seen at his best.

Elusive dream

Elusive dream trained by P. Nicholls is an another with a very good strike rate and is seen at his very best in single figure fields.

Forest pennant

Forest pennant is also trained by P. Nicholls and has a 50% strike rate over hurdles ground conditions all come alike and has won over a wide range of distances.

I’m Supreme

I’m Supreme is trained by P. Hobbs although only a six year old stepped up to 3 miles plus he has shown consistent good form on good or faster going likely to need first run of the season.

Kings euro

8 year old Kings euro trained by Tim Vaughan is effective over both hurdles and chases his distance seems to be 2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs but may stay further he need soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best.

Lodge lane

Lodge lane trained by V. Darthill lodge lane has a tremendous record over hurdles and stays a variety of distances he is unbeaten on soft or heavy going

Tips for 8 november 2008

2008-11-08T00:56:00.000-08:00

Wincanton

2.20 Ring the boss

3.25 Trigger the light

Cool Roxy

2008-10-31T06:21:00.000-07:00

Just to show how important it is to keep an eye out for horses for courses cool roxy won his 10th race from 19 appearances at Fakeham race course last Friday and although at the veteran stage now eleven year old he won by a incredible 24 lengths to give his trainer a very happy 80th birthday present.

Far from having a happy time is jockey Dean McKeown who has been banned for four years having been found guilty of conspiracy over the laying of 11 horses trained by Paul Blockley and of breaking the non trier rule these cases are never black and white and guilt or innocence are never easy to determine all that can be said is that McKeown has been a hard working and dedicated jockey for many years and should he decide not to appeal it would be sad end to a career that has spaned many years given that when the ban is complete he would be 54 years old and surly too old to start afresh in a demanding sport

Just a reminder to keep a eye out for Twistton Davis runners very good time of year for him last Sunday 4 winners from 7 runners

Tips for Saturday 1st November

2.05 Ascot: Gundadu

3.35 Wetherby: Ollie Magern

Jockey bookings

2008-10-26T05:53:00.000-07:00

With the national hunt season getting ready to take centre stage now it is worth looking at jockeys who have a good winning percentage with different trainers it can be a very valuable aid to help find winners, listed here is a few who have particularly good record at Cheltenham and Kelso.

Cheltenham

Mrs R. Dobbin has a sixty seven percent strike rate when riding for Lucinda. V. Russell, Sean Quinlan has the same record when teaming up with Gordon Elliot, A. Coleman has a 40% strike rate with R. H. Buckler while Barry Geraghty has a 38% percent call with Nicky Henderson who it is anticipated he will ride a lot more this season with Mick Fitzgerald now retired.

Harry Skelton record with Paul Nichols is a respectable 33% while David England for Twiston Davis and Felix De Giles for Nicky Henderson both have records of about 25% riding for these trainers.

Kelso

Denis O Regan has a very impressive record of 60% when he teams up with Tom George.
Brian Hughes when riding for G. A. Swinbank has a 33% strike rate as does Richard McGrath when teamed up with Miss P Robson watch out for these pointers and even more so when on a horse with good course form.

The Cesarewitch

2008-10-17T00:54:00.000-07:00

The Cesarewitch is one of the last big handicaps of the flat season and while there is always, a big field there are some pointers to help find a winner.

It pays to stick with the more seasoned campaigners 5 year old and above, also a middle to high draw is very favorable, horses carrying 9 stone or less have dominated in recent years the more fancied animals have faired best and it pays to stick with the first six or so in the betting.

A horse that should run a good race in the Cesarewitch given a reasonable draw is Liberate, trained by P. Hobbs 12-1.

National hunt

With the national hunt season getting going now its worth looking at one or two of the smaller tracks and trainer that tend to do well at the venue at Bangor for example J. J. Quinn has an exceptional record 47% over the last four years.

A. King has a respectable 26% record, while not far behind is P. Hobbs with 23%, N. A. Twiston Davis has the same percentage.

At Hexham A. E Price has a 50% record with his few runners and Karan McLintock also has a 50% record, in fact she had a winner there last Saturday from her sole runner

Trainer and Jockeys

2008-10-15T10:10:00.000-07:00

Jim Crowley has a 38% strike rate for trainers James given in the last four years T.P.Queally has a 23% strike rate for Saeed bin Suroor in the last four years at Redcar racecourse,

while Russ Atkinson has a 21% strike rate for Tom Dascombe at kempton all weather fixture over the same period. And at the same track Saeed Bin Suroor has an impressive 27% strike rate.

Almost as good is John Gosden with 22% and M. Boti is not far behind with 20% with M. Jarvis on the same rate just behind W. Haggis with 22%.

Newmarket

Worth looking out for at Newmarket is French trainer A.DE.Royer. Dupree has a 75% strike rate with a few runners and G.A.Swinbank has a 33% win ratio with his runners.

Jockeys who seem to ride at Newmarket particularly well are Mick Kinane, Dane.o.Neil and Keep an eye on the young William Buick, also with a good record at headquarters is T.P.O.Shea with Rather less rides but a good strike rate.

Top track tips

2008-09-25T12:21:00.000-07:00

Henry Cecil has a 26% strike rate with his two year olds at Newmarket since 2004 and an overall record of 22% in that time with fewer runners A. King has a 33% strike rate over the same period at Newmarket.

At Catterick racecourse T.D Walford has a 40% strike rate with his 3 year olds and older in the last four years, while Sir Mark Prescott has a 38% win rate with 3 year olds or older over the period of time.

Worth noting the runners of Mick Jarvis at Ayr have had a 33% strike rate in the last four years.

Mrs Linda Jewell does not have many runners at Newbury but has a 33% win record in recent years showing a very healthy profit.

Trainer James Fanshawe has a 22% win rate with his runners at grade 4 courses in the past ten years,

He has had a similar win rate with all his runners at Leicester and his first or second favourites have shown a £300 profit to a £10 stake in the same period also all of his horses who returned to the course within seven days showed 20% win ratio.

Coming up this weekend Cumberland lodge stakes at ascot 3 year olds have a very good record but watch out Marcus Tregoning 4 wins from as many runs.

This is a nice easy little system to operate

2008-09-19T06:21:00.000-07:00

Only bet in novice non-handicap hurdles.

Back all favorites that have a price of 7-4 or less as given by the daily mail all selections must have had a least one run under N.H Rules

Another little favorite of ours is horses for courses back any horse running at a course that has a sixty percent strike rate i.e. 3 from 5 wins, 6 wins from 10 runs at the course etc.

Coming up this weekend

Dubai duty free arc trial worth noting in this race three year olds have a sixty percent strike rate in the last 10 years

Horse Sense

2008-09-13T08:28:00.000-07:00

A site for like minded people to air their views on horse racing

And there different methods of backing horses, as well as the various systems they have tried.

Tip suggestions and fancies you may have on upcoming meetings and high profile races .

This system suggested to us has a method of finding some nice priced winners.

Bet only in races of ten runners or less the house must have run in the last 30 days and have a win/strike rate of 20% or more.

The horse must have made the frame at the course previously and finished in the first four last time out.

Top tip

Jeremy Noseda has had a 35% strike rate with his runners at Redcar in the last 10 years.

Of interest, stall number 13 has made a profit of £104 to a £1 stake in the last ten years a Leicester